Updated May 16, 2012 6:25:00 PM By Chris Tevere, CMT
Over the past week I have been using our proprietary model to track a currency pair which we get questions about day in and day out – EUR/USD. Some of the most recent questions of late have been: “how low will it go?”, “so does that mean I should short now?”, “will it break to a new 2012 low?” and even my favorite “will it reach parity?”. In yesterday’s LIVE TRADING SESSIONI addressed many [...] Continue Reading
Updated May 16, 2012 8:25:00 AM By Eric Viloria, CMT
• USD remains firm ahead of today’s FOMC minutes and amid ongoing EU concerns. UK PM Cameron put the situation in the euro area rather succinctly saying that “it either has to make up or face a potential breakup”. The dollar index is continuing its ascent towards mid-January highs after breaking a medium term bear channel. Economic data due out shortly incldes April housing starts which are forecast to gain by 4.7% m/m, building permits [...] Continue Reading
Updated May 16, 2012 6:00:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks
The Bank of England stole the headlines this morning as it delivered its second Inflation Report of the year. Its message was fairly grim: the UK won’t regain its 2007 level of output until 2018. The biggest threat to the UK economy right now according to the bank is the impasse in the Eurozone (something the BOE can’t control). The BOE: “blame the Royal Family and the Eurozone” However, the one thing it can [...] Continue Reading
Updated May 16, 2012 1:13:35 AM By Chris Tedder
Commodity currencies and the euro continued their slow march lower as concerns about political uncertainty in Greece continue to dominate investor sentiment, which is putting local data on the backseat. We suspect Greece may continue to be a major driving force behind market sentiment, at least until the Greek election in June. In Japan, machines orders declined 2.8% during the month of March, representing the first fall in three months and a big drop [...] Continue Reading
Updated May 15, 2012 9:04:26 PM By Chris Tedder
A meeting overnight between five party leaders in Athens yielded no breakthroughs in forming a new government. Whilst this was no surprise, the clear lack of cooperation between the various parties is very disconcerting and, accordingly, risk sold off following the meeting. It now appears an election will be held on June 17 and party leaders will meet later tonight to form a caretaker government. The possibly that the Syriza party will win the [...] Continue Reading
Updated May 15, 2012 6:50:00 PM By Chris Tevere, CMT
While much of the attention lately regarding the Eurozone saga has been about the Greek elections, I believe the underlying focus still remains on Spain. A little over a month ago, April 10th to be exact, I posted two charts to watch on Twitter, which suggested further EUR/USD downside was still ahead: Interestingly, both the IBEX and 10-year yield have reached their respective targets today (see charts below). While there is potential for these [...] Continue Reading
Updated May 15, 2012 5:15:00 PM By Daniel Hwang
G10 FX taking a beating at the hands of USD on risk aversion stemming from Greece’s failure to create a unity government and the fate of the euro now in the hands of the polls. Safety flows benefiting the greenback as well as all FXV (FX VIEWS) strategies – AUD/USD final limit targets hit (see below) – which happened to be positioned long USD:
CLOSED, COVERED, & OUT TODAY AUD/USD Downside Scope [...] Continue Reading
Updated May 15, 2012 4:10:00 PM By Eric Viloria, CMT
The US dollar was significantly higher against most of the majors as Greece failed to form a government and demand for safety persisted amid elevated uncertainty. GBP/USD is currently below the 1.60 big figure, AUD/USD continues to trade below parity, and EUR/USD is currently around 1.2725 and approaching the 2012 lows as the greenback strengthens. The dollar index is currently higher by about +0.83% on the session as it approaches the 2012 highs. There was [...] Continue Reading
Updated May 15, 2012 6:00:00 AM By Kathleen Brooks
It’s official, the German economy is single handed propping up the Eurozone after its economy grew five times more than forecast in the first quarter. Growth expanded by 0.5% on the quarter, pushing the annual growth rate to 1.2%, which is fairly healthy considering how dire the growth outlook is elsewhere in the currency bloc. We know that some large German companies like BMW had their best ever quarter in the first three months of [...] Continue Reading
Updated May 14, 2012 9:06:26 PM By Chris Tedder
Cries of panic from the Eurozone continue to drown-out almost everything else. China’s RRR cut failed to improve market sentiment with so much of the market focused on the political uncertainty in Greece. This is hitting equity markets, peripheral yields, and the euro and commodity currencies hard. On the other side of the equation, perceived safe haven assets flourished overnight, such as the dollar. Accordingly, with so much of the market focused on Europe [...] Continue Reading
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